Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The mean number of everyday murders monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by recent administrative data. However, public safety experts have warned that murder data could fail to point to better countrywide security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President began the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded during these months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, adding that in November the smallest amount of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that relying on homicide data to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is particularly true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is not valid for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the will to correctly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it may mask days when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violence less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the government can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still beset by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and across the country to express their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.