A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
