Trump's Ukrainian Peace Plan Represents a Advantage to Vladimir Putin

Initially, the former US president gave the impression to take a strong position on Ukraine. After making threats of "serious ramifications" in August if Russia's president carried on hindering ceasefire talks, Trump ultimately imposed substantial penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted Putin's capacity to fund his aggression in the region.

But, through his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was created by American and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU input, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's initiative would essentially favor Putin for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's political freedom in peril. Despite ringing statements that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate background, the former president continues to view the war as a basic border issue, implying handing Russia a section of Ukraine's soil will please the president. But, Putin's military campaign is not only about controlling a charred swath of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it stops acts as an appealing example for the Russian people of the accountable governance that his growing autocracy denies them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in place the already split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to seize in over a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would make Ukrainian military defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that are a key barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, providing Putin a clear way to Kyiv if he eventually opt to restart the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a step that would facilitate future hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would force the nation to diminish the scale of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative sets no such constraints on Russian forces.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as Nazis, the plan asserts: "Every extremist ideology and activities must be rejected and banned." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. However, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent agreements in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of occupied areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. Although the initiative promises a "decisive coordinated defense action" should Russia restart its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars range from unclear to alarming. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from rebuilding his weakened military, restocking, and resuming aggression.

International Response

A separate parallel deal apparently would offer the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. Yet unlike a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best protection against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would rely on the commitment of Western powers, like the US administration, to act with force to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not